Theresa May's Last Card

It's May's Deal or No Brexit

Today, British Prime Minister Theresa May made a fiery declaration: If her Brexit deal passes, then she will step down as Prime Minister.

In the past, we've covered how May had already lost all negotiating leverage with the EU by rejecting the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The deal that she had negotiated for on March 12th (and was rejected) is the best deal she will ever get. The EU has even said as much. The EU's head Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier announced, “if [Britain] still wants to leave the EU and want to do so in an orderly fashion, then this treaty which we negotiated with the government of Theresa May for a year and a half is and will remain the only available treaty.” "This treaty" that "is and will remain the only available treaty" refers to May's March 12th deal.

According to this line of thought, if May's deal does not pass, then there are only two possible options left: a no-deal Brexit, or no Brexit at all. But on March 14th, Parliament rejected the former (a no-deal Brexit), and so the only possible option left now is the latter: no Brexit at all. To most of the Tories and the Leavers in Parliament, that would be an unacceptable result, and they are all slowly realizing it.

It's May's Deal or No Brexit.

Thus, the Prime Minister and her Conservative Party desperately need to pass May's deal. This explains May's drastic announcement earlier today. She told her Party today, "I ask everyone in this room to back the deal so we can complete our historic duty - to deliver on the decision of the British people and leave the European Union with a smooth and orderly exit," and "I am prepared to leave this job earlier than I intended in order to do what is right for our country and our party."

This moving self-sacrifice on May's part serves a political purpose. By offering to resign, she is appeasing some members of her Conservative Party who disapprove of her leadership and her deal, essentially offering them what they want (her resignation) in exchange for what she wants (her deal to pass). She is also making it clear that to reject her deal would probably mean no Brexit at all, thus incentivizing the Eurosceptic MPs who believe her deal to be too soft to now vote for it.

The move seems to have worked to some extent. Per BBC, George Freeman said that May's "speech had been followed by a series of interventions from 'very hardline Brexiteers' all saying 'prime minister, thank you, I will now vote for this deal.'" Eurosceptic leader Jacob Rees-Mogg has certainly changed his view. Once a staunch opponent of May's deal (he once said that May's deal would reduce Britain to a "slave state" of the EU and his faction contributed heavily to the crushing defeats of May's deal in Parliament), today Rees-Mogg said: “The choice seems to be Mrs. May’s deal or no Brexit... Is this deal worse than not leaving? No, definitely not. If we take this deal we are legally out of the EU . . . It restores our independence.”

The Eurosceptics and Tories see the writing on the wall, writing that was illuminated by May's announcement today. They realize that May has no leverage and that this deal from the EU is the best that they are going to get. With no-deal off the table, it indeed is as Mr. Reess-Mogg states: it's "May’s deal or no Brexit." May's resignation (both literally and figuratively) highlight this predicament. The signal has worked.