Road to Ruin: The Democratic Party's Leftwards Slide
Expect a Landslide Loss in 2020
[Disclaimer: I identify as a Democrat].
The Democratic Party has experienced a major leftwards shift in recent years. The influence of moderate centrists in the party (think Obama and Clinton) have waned, being replaced by a progressive wave of politicians situated further to the left (think Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren).
This shift is getting a huge amount of media coverage. Sanders nearly snatched the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton in 2016. Elizabeth Warren is making national headlines with her broad-reaching ideas for tech regulation. Ocasio-Cortez's rise, in particular, has been astronomical -- from virtually 0 name recognition only a year ago to becoming one of the biggest names in the Democratic Party now. Central to much of this is the rise of self-described socialists such as Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez and the corresponding rise in prominence of many socialist ideas, such as Universal Basic Income and Medicare for All — all of which would have been unthinkable only a decade ago. This phenomenon is being celebrated by many in the Democratic Party, particularly among younger voters, and have become major components of the Party as a whole.
But not all publicity is good publicity. The Democratic Party is playing a dangerous game by associating itself so strongly with socialism and socialist policies. "Fewer than one in five Americans view socialism favorably." "Only 25 percent of Americans are enthusiastic or comfortable with a socialist becoming the next president." Looking at Ocasio-Cortez, "she declined from a 34-29 favorability rating in NY State before the Amazon deal collapsed (Quinnipiac) to a 31-44 rating afterward (Siena)... In New York City, the decline was especially steep, from 49-17 favorable/unfavorable before Amazon to 43-37 afterward." That's a huge swing. Republicans (a group that makes up about 25% of the population and votes a lot), especially disapprove of this leftwards shift especially (obviously). Ocasio-Cortez is also polling terribly with independents, at 23-35 favorable/unfavorable.
Donald Trump has seized on this, starting to frame the 2020 election as a contest between freedom and socialism. Most American voters have memories of the Cold War, which does the side that identifies more with socialism no favors,
The numbers are frighteningly bad, and they are not the numbers you want if you're going into an election. If over 80% of Americans do not view your ideological identity (socialism) favorably, you will probably get annihilated in an election. And if, in addition to that, the standard-bearer and symbol of a major part of your Party's (Ocasio-Cortez) disapproval rating is rising exponentially in a very short time, then a landslide is probably coming for you, and you'll be on the wrong side of it.
Biden/Beto may be the only hope (may write on this at a later date.)
But not all publicity is good publicity. The Democratic Party is playing a dangerous game by associating itself so strongly with socialism and socialist policies. "Fewer than one in five Americans view socialism favorably." "Only 25 percent of Americans are enthusiastic or comfortable with a socialist becoming the next president." Looking at Ocasio-Cortez, "she declined from a 34-29 favorability rating in NY State before the Amazon deal collapsed (Quinnipiac) to a 31-44 rating afterward (Siena)... In New York City, the decline was especially steep, from 49-17 favorable/unfavorable before Amazon to 43-37 afterward." That's a huge swing. Republicans (a group that makes up about 25% of the population and votes a lot), especially disapprove of this leftwards shift especially (obviously). Ocasio-Cortez is also polling terribly with independents, at 23-35 favorable/unfavorable.
Donald Trump has seized on this, starting to frame the 2020 election as a contest between freedom and socialism. Most American voters have memories of the Cold War, which does the side that identifies more with socialism no favors,
The numbers are frighteningly bad, and they are not the numbers you want if you're going into an election. If over 80% of Americans do not view your ideological identity (socialism) favorably, you will probably get annihilated in an election. And if, in addition to that, the standard-bearer and symbol of a major part of your Party's (Ocasio-Cortez) disapproval rating is rising exponentially in a very short time, then a landslide is probably coming for you, and you'll be on the wrong side of it.
Biden/Beto may be the only hope (may write on this at a later date.)
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